Thedowtheory.com valuation and analysis
Robots.txt Information
| Robot | Path | Permission |
| GoogleBot | / | ✔ |
| BingBot | / | ✔ |
| BaiduSpider | / | ✔ |
| YandexBot | / | ✔ |
Meta Tags
| Title | The Dow Theory | Schannep Timing Indicators |
| Description | PRINT Overview: We always show the first day that Capitulation occurs, as sometimes that is the only day it stays in that configuration. But as you know, from this past March, Capitulation lingered for a full three weeks. That period was extended from the first day of cascading down into a cataclysmic sell-off until a week after it started back up from the three-day sub-19,000 low, as you can see here: Subscribers have asked about how and why Capitulation occurs, and how our Indicator works. To clarify the duration of these past Capitulations, in the Special Report we have updated the graphs to show the time frames involved. If you haven't read that report, I suggest you do as it gives considerable information on this excellent Indicator, such as the median gain one year after the first day of Capitulation has been 28% which equates to 3,515 for the S&P500 currently. The first description by Robert Rhea almost 90 years ago in his The Dow Theory is still one of the best although neither he, nor Charles Dow, ever called it "Capitulation": "caused by distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find a cash market for at least a portion of their assets". "After a market has drastically declined…and then goes into a semi-panic collapse, it is wise to cover short positions and even perhaps make commitments for long account". As long-time Subscribers know, I have made minor "tweaks" to the Dow Theory for the 21st Century since my book was released in 2008 (see December 2010 Letter): "Now, as to what I have been rethinking.... As you know, from time to time in these Letters I have made various tweaks to the rules for my interpretation of the Dow Theory for the 21st Century. On page 99 I wrote that '…the Standard & Poor's 500 is the preeminent index in interpreting the Dow Theory in the twenty-first century', and went on to say 'Whenever either the Industrials or Transports confirm the S&P500, then a signal is given.' I should have stopped right there because it is absolutely true." Since then I have recognized that rather than "stop right there", I should have continued to the logical conclusion that the S&P500 not only must be a part of every signal, but that the required 3% bounce or pullback must always occur on the S&P500. Such a "tweak" would have answered the questions I had when we were having whipsaws 2015 through 2019, and implementing this tweak would have eliminated a number of poor/bad signals. You may recall that I "overrode" a Sell signal in November of 2016 as I felt something was wrong. Well, it turns out that a requirement for the S&P500 bounce/pullback to be at least 3% would have corrected itself. Therefore, that will be a requirement henceforth. We have made sure that the new requirement does really work. To this end, we have applied the rule from 12/31/1953 to date with an increase in performance and an avoidance of some whipsaws. It seems that Robert Rhea's 1932 advice that "The usefulness of the Dow Theory improves with age.... and that those who use it 20 years from now will have a greater advantage than we enjoy now." is still valid in the 21st Century. Sincerely, Jack and Manuel The DOW THEORY for the 21st Century: This indicator is GREEN (BUY), from the 25% position held from 10/25/19 and the 75% bought on 4/6/20 for an average buy of 23,749.50. On June 8th the three indexes we monitor made higher highs. From that date the Dow Industrials and Transports declined for 14 trading days until 6/26/2020. The S&P500 declined for just 3 trading days until June 11th. The rules of the Dow Theory for the 21st Century require that a secondary reaction which interrupts the primary trend must last a minimum 10 calendar days on 2 of the 3 indexes with at least 8 trading days as the average of all three indexes (Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and the S&P500). Well, the Dow Industrials and Transports have declined for more than 10 calendar days, and the average decline of the three indexes has been 10.33 days -(14+14+3)/3=10.33-. Thus, the time requirement for a secondary reaction has been amply met. As to the extent requirement, to qualify as a secondary reaction the price change must be at least 3% on two of the three indexes. They have declines of more than 3% as you can see in the table below. Given that both the time and extent requirement have been met on June 26th, we can declare the existence of a secondary reaction against the ongoing bull market since that date. The Dow Industrials and Transports made their secondary reaction closing lows on June 26th. The S&P500 did so on June 11th. From the June 26th closing lows, two trading days have elapsed, and all three indexes have rallied more than 3%. Therefore, on June 30th the setup for a SELL signal has been completed. What next? From here, we have two possible outcomes: a) Either at least two indexes break up their respective bull market closing highs of June 8th in which case the secondary reaction will be cancelled and the bull swing will be reconfirmed, b) or the S&P500 plus one other index break down their respective secondary reaction closing lows (June 26th for the Dow Industrials and Transports and June 11th for the S&P500) in which case a SELL signal would be signaled. As usual, we will alert you via email anytime there is a potential change. The table below summarizes the price action since the last recorded market highs until now: The Original Dow Theory: Charles Dow's Theory is GREEN ("BUY") since 5/26/2020 at 24,995.11, In our May 1st Letter we explained an alternative earlier entry on 4/29/2020. The last recorded closing highs were jointly made by the Dow Industrials and Transports on June 8th. From that date both indexes declined until June 26th for a total of 14 trading days. According to a strict reading of the original Dow Theory a secondary reaction usually lasts from three weeks to as many months. Given that the pullback has not exceeded 15 trading days, the time requirement for a secondary reaction has not been met. As to the extent requirement, the Dow Industrials has declined 9.3% from the June 8th closing highs and the Dow Transports -12.4%. Since we have had a pullback amply exceeding 3% on a confirmed basis, the extent requirement for a secondary reaction has been met. However, and given that the time requirement has not been met, we cannot declare the existence of a secondary reaction yet. The table below summarizes the price action since the last recorded market highs until now: Schannep ↑TIMING ↓INDICATOR: This proprietary market timing Indicator returned to a full BUY (GREEN) on 4/6/20 at the 22,679.99 level when the definition of a Bull market was met, from the 50% previous BUY on 2/19/19 at the 25,891.32 level, for an average "cost basis" of 24,285.65. The monetary situation continues extraordinarily positive, offsetting somewhat the slightly negative momentum, leaving this Indicator still positive. The COMPOSITE Timing Indicator: This, our primary major-trend timing Indicator, is also in a full BUY (GREEN) from 4/6/20 at the 22,679.99 level. With the Schannep Timing Indicator Buy at 24,285.65 and the Dow Theory for the 21st Century Buy at 23,759.50, this averages out to 24,022.57 for this Indicator. It would require a Sell signal from either of the above two Indicators to change this Indicator from its 100% invested position. If a Sell signal occurs, we would drop to a 50% invested status. The BOTTOM LINE: Our June 11th email "Today's Debacle" is still pertinent: "Today's collapse is in keeping with this erratic and overreacting stock market. The sell-off in February-March to below 19,000 was crazy, and many think this new Bull market to 27,500 is also. As you know from our last Letter, the S&P500 has reached its Target #2 (the Dow Industrials were just shy), and as with Target #1, a consolidation, at least, was in order. Even with today's sharp sell-off it is not clear if attaining the second Target will be, as I have previously quoted Sklarew as saying: "...I have observed ... that if a major move continues much beyond the first objective without correcting, it is likely to stop at the second objective". Only time will tell, but in the meantime please remember that our trend-following Indicators are still positive. That could change, but any change will not be on a dime/immediate, so we must give more time to determine if this is the start of the pullback the bears are hoping for, or "just" a violent pause and consolidation of the gains made to-date. We realize that COVID-19 is still with us (and getting worse in Arizona where I live, and in the Dominican Republic where Manuel lives), and while it will not end soon, it will subside. And as before, and always for that matter, the stock market will continue to look to the future". This current drop below the June 11th lows is a slightly negative development but does not in and of itself constitute a signal. As you know, secondary reactions are a normal, if unsettling, part of the stock market's life. As Rhea wrote in 1932, "Secondary reactions are as necessary to the stock market as safety valves to steam boilers". Even though most conclude with a continuation of the prior trend, currently bullish, the danger is that they might actually be the start of a new bearish trend. At this point the outcome is not clear, but after this 3% bounce on the S&P500 and the Dow Industrials, and 4% on the Dow Transports, we should shortly know the outcome. A rise back to newer highs above the early June highs would clearly be bullish, but a drop below last weeks lows would be a Sell signal. Keep an eye out, as we do, and of course we will advise you when the outcome is clear. Jack Schannep Editor Manuel Blay Contributing Editor for TheDowTheory.com Team Historically we have tracked the performance of one of my ACTUAL ROTH IRA portfolios, fully following the Composite Timing Indicator's signals which is currently 100% invested. For longer-term results see The Composite Timing Indicator which we use for timing in our Portfolio verses Buy and Hold. FYI, over the last 65 years Buy & Hold has grown at a 10.6% annual rate whereas The Composite has grown at a 13.3% rate. The problem with showing this real-money Portfolio is that it represents only what I am doing, which could be very different from others. Subscribers use this letter for Market Timing, which could include shorting, going long, even utilizing leveraged investments that could double or triple – in either direction. These results have been monitored by several independent sources that track our performance such as Hulbert Financial Digest, DowTheoryInvestments.com, CXO Advisory Group and TimerTrac.com. This Letter concentrates on the big picture, the trend of the major stock market indexes which usually influences the price direction of most individual stocks. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of The Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss or will equal the performance of the benchmark portfolio. All investments involve the risk of potential investment losses as well as the potential for investment gains. The performance of any portfolio or investment strategy should be viewed in the context of the broad market and prevailing economic conditions. |
| Keywords | N/A |
Server Information
| WebSite | |
| Host IP | 192.254.251.123 |
| Location | Houston, Texas, United States |
Related Websites
| Site | Rank |
| dowtheory.com | #5,520,632 |
| dowtheoryinvestment.com | #5,701,796 |
| timertrac.com | #3,947,020 |
| robertwcolby.com | #2,549,266 |
More to Explore
Thedowtheory.com Valuation
|
US$6,053
Last updated: Jul 19, 2020
Thedowtheory.com has global traffic rank of 2,809,567. Thedowtheory.com has an estimated worth of US$ 6,053, based on its estimated Ads revenue. Thedowtheory.com receives approximately 1,105 unique visitors each day. Its web server is located in Houston, Texas, United States, with IP address 192.254.251.123. According to SiteAdvisor, thedowtheory.com is safe to visit. |
Traffic & Worth Estimates
| Purchase/Sale Value | US$6,053 |
| Daily Ads Revenue | US$3 |
| Monthly Ads Revenue | US$99 |
| Yearly Ads Revenue | US$1,210 |
| Daily Unique Visitors | 1,105 |
| Note: All traffic and earnings values are estimates. | |
Traffic Ranks
| Global Rank | 2,809,567 |
| Delta (90 Days) | 0 |
| Most Popular In Country | N/A |
| Country Rank | N/A |
DNS Records
| Host | Type | TTL | Data |
| thedowtheory.com | A | 14399 | IP: 192.254.251.123 |
| thedowtheory.com | MX | 14399 | Priority: 0 Target: mail.thedowtheory.com. |
| thedowtheory.com | NS | 21599 | Target: ns2427.hostgator.com. |
| thedowtheory.com | NS | 21599 | Target: ns2428.hostgator.com. |
| thedowtheory.com | TXT | 14399 | TXT: v=spf1 include:servers.mcsv.net ?all |
| thedowtheory.com | TXT | 14399 | TXT: v=spf1 ip4:50.87.144.206 +a +mx +ip4:198.57.247.170 ~all |
| thedowtheory.com | TXT | 14399 | TXT: \226\128\156v=spf1 +a +mx +include:websitewelcome.com +include:_spf.google.com ~all\226\128\157 |
| thedowtheory.com | SOA | 21599 | MNAME: ns6411.hostgator.com. RNAME: dnsadmin.gator3206.hostgator.com. Serial: 2020062001 Refresh: 86400 Retry: 7200 Expire: 3600000 Minimum TTL: 86400 |
HTTP Headers
HTTP/1.1 301 Moved Permanently Date: Sun, 19 Jul 2020 15:51:28 GMT Server: Apache Location: https://thedowtheory.com/ Content-Length: 233 Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 HTTP/2 200 date: Sun, 19 Jul 2020 15:51:29 GMT server: Apache expires: Wed, 11 Jan 1984 05:00:00 GMT cache-control: no-cache, must-revalidate, max-age=0 link: <https://thedowtheory.com/wp-json/>; rel="https://api.w.org/" vary: Accept-Encoding content-type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 |
Thedowtheory.com Whois Information
Domain Name: THEDOWTHEORY.COM Registry Domain ID: 2103724_DOMAIN_COM-VRSN Registrar WHOIS Server: whois.networksolutions.com Registrar URL: http://networksolutions.com Updated Date: 2020-01-25T07:59:36Z Creation Date: 1998-03-26T05:00:00Z Registry Expiry Date: 2025-03-25T04:00:00Z Registrar: Network Solutions, LLC Registrar IANA ID: 2 Registrar Abuse Contact Email: abuse@web.com Registrar Abuse Contact Phone: +1.8003337680 Domain Status: clientTransferProhibited https://icann.org/epp#clientTransferProhibited Name Server: NS6411.HOSTGATOR.COM Name Server: NS6412.HOSTGATOR.COM DNSSEC: unsigned URL of the ICANN Whois Inaccuracy Complaint Form: https://www.icann.org/wicf/ IP Address Has Reached Rate Limit |